July 8, 2007

GenVec: Too much risk

Recommendation: Hold
Fair Value: $2.62
Disclosure: I have no position in GNVC

Putting my estimates together in my rNPV template turn up a fair value for GenVec. The majority of the company's value is in the potential for TNFerade, but the company is currently just too risky for a buy recommendation. The company needs to continue moving forward with TNFerade. It had a slight misstep this month, as data for TNFerade's treatment of pancreatic cancer was not up to investors' standards. Any more problems and GenVec could be in serious trouble as a company. The company already needs to raise more cash, and investors will probably not be too excited to give GenVec money if TNFerade is not progressing.
Barring any more setbacks, I value TNFerade at $2.27, with $1.52 coming from the potential to treat pancreatic cancer. I value AdPEDF at $0.19, and the whole company at $2.62, which includes TNFerade, AdPEDF, and the company's government collaborations. Obviously, value would be realized with progress in any area for its two drugs.
I am placing a hold recommendation on GenVec due to a lack of upside. I believe that the company is fairly valued and until there is more data released on TNFerade's progress I do not think that the stock can move. There should not be much downside, either, but I do not think investors will be able to make money in this stock for a few months to come. I will revisit this recommendation as mid-trial data is announced.